The Last Exposure

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In the last 30 days, the US Occupational Safety and Health Authority cited a pet food company in Florida for failing to provide protective gear for workers handling corrosive chemicals, a Pennsylvania hair salon for exposing workers to hazardous materials, an Ohio musical instrument factory for exposing workers to toxic copper dust, and a Texas indoor gun range for exposing workers to unsafe levels of lead. Citations like that happen regularly, year-round, highlighting that even in a country with extensive worker safety rules, going to work is still a hazard for many.

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In fact, it is often deadly: Around the world, a worker dies from toxic exposure in their workplace every 30 seconds, according to a UN report published in September by Baskut Tuncak, the United Nations special rapporteur on toxics. If you look at a lot of high frequency data for the economy, September things have started inching up a little bit.

The Last Exposure - Owls (University Project)

It is still early days but all these are the green shoots and I am hoping that with RBI cutting rates, liquidity will continue. PSU banks are in a strong position and the government is also making sure that all the reform action and the push is there. In the next three to six months we should at least see things getting normalised and then improvement should start. At least, they have stopped getting worse in the last four-five weeks. One of the key concerns within the real estate space is the stress there is likely to continue into the next few years.

Is that a big concern? There is a liquidity stress across all the projects in India, whether it is real estate projects or other projects because project funding has started to dry off. The only good news is that this has been going on for one year and so there is no new unknown. A year ago, everybody knew that liquidity availability for real estate projects is going to be slow.

Exposure - Gem Fletcher examines talent in photography

The other good news is that these are all housing projects and experience has shown in India that if the project gets completed, than usually recoveries and sales are not a problem. So, the current effort is to make sure the projects get completed.

There is another good news, but it will play out may be a year from now, that the demand supply equation in housing has started to correct. We always had oversupply, but in the last one year as liquidity has dried up, very few new projects are getting launched and as a result, the supply of inventory will slowly and steadily get crunched and as the demand comes back with interest rates coming down and banks pushing home loans, we should see the demand supply equation getting corrected. The most critical part in any project is to make sure the project gets completed and the other good news is there are more than 5, projects in India where NBFCs and banks have funded housing and real estate.

At a project level, your exposure is a much smaller amount for any entity because it is spread over so many projects and the projects are not as much related. A project in Bangalore and a project in Mumbai have no correlation with each other.

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So unlike a steel project or a power project -- which are Rs 5,, crore, an average housing project costs between Rs , crore. As a result, exposure of NBFCs and banks is spread over a lot of projects and the projects that get completed will not have to face haircut or loss or stress. When it comes to your own NBFC, what is the percentage of exposure to real estate and how much of that percentage is actually under stress? Our real estate book is about Rs 11, crore on a balance sheet of approximately Rs 55, crore.

We have a retail credit business, SME loans and all all those are not affected. Out of the Rs 11, crore, the book is spread over odd projects and we have that in our investor presentation also.

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We have highlighted that this book is fairly granular because it is spread over projects. They have been the same for the last 10 years. One of our core capability has been to make sure we provide oversight and liquidity to get the projects completed because that is the only panacea that if the project gets completed, your risk can be fairly contained. This year, we are aiming for a Rs 12, crore recoveries in the ARC business. If the underlying asset is good and economically viable, converting that into value will take effort but can be done and you can manage your risk in that way.

That has been our approach. So, we are very well diversified, we have an earnings stream which is also non-NBFC related and on top of that, we also raised equity in the NBFC business as well as the advisory business.

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We have been very quick to move. A year ago, we said may be, things will slow down, but we will become stronger. We have done all of this to make sure that we adapt to the environment.

I think the worsening of the environment is over and at least in the last few weeks we are starting to see stabilisation coming in. After checking in and setting their exposure goals, the group will individually engage in their exposure tasks. The group will sometimes have opportunities to complete exposure tasks in the community, to broaden the variety of experience and aid generalization of therapy gains.

At the end of the night, the group will reconvene to discuss their performance in exposure tasks.


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